News
Bank of England – News
Statistical Notice 2024/12
Statistical Notices update the definitions and guidance contained in the Banking Statistics Yellow Folder
Minutes of the Meeting of the Court of Directors held on 5 July 2024
The Bank's Court of Directors acts as a unitary board, setting the organisation's strategy and budget and taking key decisions on resourcing and appointments. Required to meet a minimum seven times per year, it has five executive members from the Bank and up to nine non-executive members.
SIMEX 24 – A major market-wide simulation exercise to test the UK financial sector’s resilience to a major operational disruption
The Bank of England, in partnership with UK Finance, the financial sector and the other UK financial authorities (HM Treasury and the Financial Conduct Authority), has undertaken its latest UK market wide simulation exercise, SIMEX 24.
European Central Bank – News
Monetary and fiscal policy interactions: risks to price stability in times of high government debt
The change in macroeconomic conditions since the ECB’s strategy review in 2021 towards an environment characterised by above-target inflation, high interest rates, and renewed concerns about elevated government debt has been a vocal reminder of the intricate interdependencies between monetary and fiscal policies. Against this background, our paper reviews the literature on how central banks’ ability to maintain price stability is shaped by their interactions with fiscal policy and the state of the economy. According to standard models, a policy framework aimed at price stability requires suitable commitments from both monetary and fiscal authorities. When public debt burdens become too high, price stability may be at risk. The paper also draws lessons on how to mitigate such risks.
Capital requirements in Pillar 1 or Pillar 2: does it matter for market discipline?
The results of this paper provide empirical evidence that regulatory capital ratios drive bank Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and that markets react more to changes in capital requirements if implemented via direct adjustments to Pillar 1 risk weights than imposed as a percentage of Risk-Weighted Assets (RWAs) under Pillar 2. In other words, market discipline on bank capital adequacy is sensitive to the composition of the capital requirement stack. Therefore, this paper contributes novel insights to existing research on the market relevance of regulatory capital ratios, on the functioning of the Basel framework, and on market discipline along with its relationship with Pillar 1 and Pillar 2 capital requirements. The findings are relevant in light of the continuous discussions around the capital regulation for Interest Rate Risk in the Banking Book (IRRBB) and other Pillar 2 risks because they suggest that risks are more disciplined by markets if they are reflected in regulatory capital ratios via RWAs. Moreover, the results suggest that further regulatory alignment within the EU can impact the comparability of regulatory capital ratios and affect pricing decisions. In the first empirical step, the research investigates the drivers of CDS and identifies a significant relationship between CDS spreads and regulatory capital ratios. In the second step, the paper researches a quasi-natural experiment based on an event in the EU banking sector. In 2018, the Swedish supervisory authority changed the implementation approach of a risk weight floor on Swedish mortgages by shifting it from Pillar 2 to Pillar 1 while keeping total capital requirements stable. To assess if this merely technical regulatory adjustment triggered an unexpected reaction by markets, a two-step system Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) regression is applied to a sample of CDS spreads of 21 European banks between 2014 and 2020.
Federal Reserve Board – Press Releases
Federal and state financial regulatory agencies issue interagency statement on supervisory practices regarding financial institutions affected by Hurricane Milton
Federal and state financial regulatory agencies issue interagency statement on supervisory practices regarding financial institutions affected by Hurricane Milton
Minutes of the Board's discount rate meetings on September 9 and 18, 2024
Minutes of the Board's discount rate meetings on September 9 and 18, 2024
Federal Reserve Board fines Toronto-Dominion Bank $123.5 million for violations related to anti-money laundering laws
Federal Reserve Board fines Toronto-Dominion Bank $123.5 million for violations related to anti-money laundering laws
Speeches
Federal Reserve Board – Speeches
Waller, Thoughts on the Economy and Policy Rules at the Federal Open Market Committee
Speech At “A 50 Year Retrospective on the Shadow Open Market Committee and Its Role in Monetary Policy,” a conference sponsored by the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, Stanford, California
Bowman, Challenges to the Community Banking Model
Speech At the 18th Annual Community Bankers Symposium, Community Banking: Navigating a Changing Landscape, Chicago, Illinois
Cook, Entrepreneurs, Innovation, and Participation
Speech At the 2024 Women for Women Summit, Charleston, South Carolina
European Central Bank – Speeches
Bank of England – Speeches
Monetary Policy: Lessons from the pandemic - slides by Swati Dhingra
Given at the Reserve Bank of India’s 90th anniversary high-level conference
Cross-checking − speech by Huw Pill
Given at the Institute of Chartered Accountants for England and Wales annual conference ‘Building an Economy Fit for the Future’, London
Enhancing our national asset: Maximising the value of data collections across the financial sector − speech by James Benford
Given at RegTech Summit London
Hong Kong Monetary Authority – Speeches
Knowledge
Federal Reserve Board – Working Papers
IFDP Paper: Household Excess Savings and the Transmission of Monetary Policy
Thiago R.T. Ferreira, Nils Gornemann, and Julio L. Ortiz
Household savings rose above trend in many developed countries after the onset of COVID-19. Given its link to aggregate consumption, the presence of these "excess savings" has raised questions about their implications for the transmission of monetary policy. Using a panel of euro-area economies and high-frequency monetary policy shocks, we document that household excess savings dampen the effects of monetary policy on economic activity and inflation, especially during the pandemic period. To rationalize our empirical findings, we build a New Keynesian model in which households use savings to self-insure against counter-cyclical unemployment and consumption risk.
Household savings rose above trend in many developed countries after the onset of COVID-19. Given its link to aggregate consumption, the presence of these "excess savings" has raised questions about their implications for the transmission of monetary policy. Using a panel of euro-area economies and high-frequency monetary policy shocks, we document that household excess savings dampen the effects of monetary policy on economic activity and inflation, especially during the pandemic period. To rationalize our empirical findings, we build a New Keynesian model in which households use savings to self-insure against counter-cyclical unemployment and consumption risk.
FEDS Paper: Disagreement About the Term Structure of Inflation Expectations
Hie Joo Ahn and Leland E. Farmer
We develop a model of the individual term structure of inflation expectations across forecasting horizons. Using the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we decompose disagreement about inflation expectations into individuals’ long-term beliefs, private information, and public information. We find that in normal times, long-horizon disagreement is predominantly driven by individuals’ long-term beliefs, while short-horizon disagreement stems from private information. During economic downturns, heterogeneous reactions to public information become a key driver of disagreement at all horizons. When forecasters disagree about public information, monetary policy exhibits a delayed response and a price puzzle emerges, underscoring the importance of anchoring inflation expectations.
We develop a model of the individual term structure of inflation expectations across forecasting horizons. Using the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we decompose disagreement about inflation expectations into individuals’ long-term beliefs, private information, and public information. We find that in normal times, long-horizon disagreement is predominantly driven by individuals’ long-term beliefs, while short-horizon disagreement stems from private information. During economic downturns, heterogeneous reactions to public information become a key driver of disagreement at all horizons. When forecasters disagree about public information, monetary policy exhibits a delayed response and a price puzzle emerges, underscoring the importance of anchoring inflation expectations.
FEDS Paper: Are Manufacturing Jobs Still Good Jobs? An Exploration of the Manufacturing Wage Premium(Revised)
Kimberly Bayard, Tomaz Cajner, Vivi Gregorich, and Maria D. Tito
This paper explores the factors behind the disappearance of the manufacturing wage premium—the additional pay a manufacturing worker earns relative to a comparable nonmanufacturing worker. With substantially larger declines across union members, we quantify the role of unionization by exploiting the heterogeneity in membership status across manufacturing industries. We find that the decline in union membership explains more than 70 percent of the decline in the wage premium since the 1990s for union members but does not affect nonunion premia. Our findings suggest that the erosion of “good” manufacturing jobs has contributed to the increase in overall wage inequality.
This paper explores the factors behind the disappearance of the manufacturing wage premium—the additional pay a manufacturing worker earns relative to a comparable nonmanufacturing worker. With substantially larger declines across union members, we quantify the role of unionization by exploiting the heterogeneity in membership status across manufacturing industries. We find that the decline in union membership explains more than 70 percent of the decline in the wage premium since the 1990s for union members but does not affect nonunion premia. Our findings suggest that the erosion of “good” manufacturing jobs has contributed to the increase in overall wage inequality.
European Central Bank – Working Papers
Monetary and fiscal policy interactions: risks to price stability in times of high government debt
The change in macroeconomic conditions since the ECB’s strategy review in 2021 towards an environment characterised by above-target inflation, high interest rates, and renewed concerns about elevated government debt has been a vocal reminder of the intricate interdependencies between monetary and fiscal policies. Against this background, our paper reviews the literature on how central banks’ ability to maintain price stability is shaped by their interactions with fiscal policy and the state of the economy. According to standard models, a policy framework aimed at price stability requires suitable commitments from both monetary and fiscal authorities. When public debt burdens become too high, price stability may be at risk. The paper also draws lessons on how to mitigate such risks.
Capital requirements in Pillar 1 or Pillar 2: does it matter for market discipline?
The results of this paper provide empirical evidence that regulatory capital ratios drive bank Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and that markets react more to changes in capital requirements if implemented via direct adjustments to Pillar 1 risk weights than imposed as a percentage of Risk-Weighted Assets (RWAs) under Pillar 2. In other words, market discipline on bank capital adequacy is sensitive to the composition of the capital requirement stack. Therefore, this paper contributes novel insights to existing research on the market relevance of regulatory capital ratios, on the functioning of the Basel framework, and on market discipline along with its relationship with Pillar 1 and Pillar 2 capital requirements. The findings are relevant in light of the continuous discussions around the capital regulation for Interest Rate Risk in the Banking Book (IRRBB) and other Pillar 2 risks because they suggest that risks are more disciplined by markets if they are reflected in regulatory capital ratios via RWAs. Moreover, the results suggest that further regulatory alignment within the EU can impact the comparability of regulatory capital ratios and affect pricing decisions. In the first empirical step, the research investigates the drivers of CDS and identifies a significant relationship between CDS spreads and regulatory capital ratios. In the second step, the paper researches a quasi-natural experiment based on an event in the EU banking sector. In 2018, the Swedish supervisory authority changed the implementation approach of a risk weight floor on Swedish mortgages by shifting it from Pillar 2 to Pillar 1 while keeping total capital requirements stable. To assess if this merely technical regulatory adjustment triggered an unexpected reaction by markets, a two-step system Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) regression is applied to a sample of CDS spreads of 21 European banks between 2014 and 2020.
Stablecoins, money market funds and monetary policy
Using a new series of crypto shocks, we document that money market funds’ (MMF) assets under management, and traditional financial market variables more broadly, do not react to crypto shocks, whereas stablecoin market capitalization does. U.S. monetary policy shocks, in contrast, drive developments in both crypto and traditional markets. Crucially, the reaction of MMF assets and stablecoin market capitalization to monetary policy shocks is different: while prime-MMF assets rise after a monetary policy tightening, stablecoin market capitalization declines. In assessing the state of the stablecoin market, the risk-taking environment as dictated by monetary policy is much more consequential than flight-to-quality dynamics observed within stablecoins and MMFs.
Bank of England – Knowledgebank
What are stablecoins and how do they work?
Stablecoins are a form of digital asset that can be used to make payments. They tend to be less volatile than cryptoassets. That is because their value is tied to other, stable, assets.
How do higher interest rates help to lower inflation?
Interest rates and inflation are closely linked. Higher rates will help to bring down inflation. But how exactly?
What happened to Silicon Valley Bank UK?
It’s our job to make sure a failing UK bank doesn’t cause widespread harm to the economy or cost UK taxpayers money.
Hong Kong Monetary Authority – Insight
Background
European Central Bank – Research
Consumer demand for central bank digital currency as a means of payment
What factors could drive transactional demand for central bank digital currency (CBDC)? We analyse payment survey data to arrive at a framework for understanding the role of adoption frictions and design strategies in shaping CBDC demand. The results of our analysis show that, while consumers may initially prefer to use more traditional payment methods, a design tailored to their specific needs could significantly increase CBDC uptake. Raising awareness and capitalising on network effects could also boost demand for CBDC.
Different household – different inflation rate
Households differ considerably in terms of the inflation they experience at any point in time. The main reasons for this are that prices (and thus price changes) differ from place to place and that households do not all buy the same products. Households adjust their purchases over time, but not enough to offset these differences.
A diverse investor base impacts the effectiveness of large-scale asset purchases
Large-scale asset purchases can impact the price of securities either directly, when securities are targeted by the central bank, or indirectly through portfolio rebalancing by private investors. We quantify both the direct impact and that of portfolio rebalancing, emphasising the role of investor heterogeneity. We use proprietary security-level data on asset holdings of different investors. We measure the direct impact at security level, finding that it is smaller for securities predominantly held by more price-elastic investors, i.e. funds and banks. Comparing securities at the 90th and 10th percentile of the investor elasticity distribution, the price impact of central bank purchases on the securities held by more price-elastic investors is only two-thirds as large. To assess the portfolio rebalancing effects, we construct a novel shift-share instrument. With this, we measure investors’ quasi-exogenous exposure to central bank purchases, based on their holdings of eligible securities before the quantitative easing (QE) programme was announced. We show that funds and banks sell eligible securities to the central bank and rebalance their portfolios towards ineligible securities, with those investors more exposed to central bank purchases ex ante engaging in more rebalancing. Using detailed holdings data for mutual funds, we estimate that for each euro of proceeds from selling securities to the central bank, the average fund allocates 88 cents to ineligible assets and 12 cents to other eligible assets that the central bank did not buy in that time period. The price of ineligible securities held by more exposed funds increases compared with those held by less exposed funds, underscoring the fact that the portfolio rebalancing channel is at work.
Federal Reserve Board – FEDS Notes
FEDS Note: A Better Way of Understanding the US Consumer: Decomposing Retail Spending by Household Income
Sinem Hacıoğlu Hoke, Leo Feler, and Jack Chylak
Changes in retail spending reflect changes in consumer demand for goods. For the past several months, retail sales estimates published by the Census Bureau have indicated that consumer demand for retail goods remains resilient. However, published measures do not provide details on which consumers’ spending has remained resilient. Using a detailed micro dataset, we construct a measure of average retail spending for low-, middle- and high-income households.
Changes in retail spending reflect changes in consumer demand for goods. For the past several months, retail sales estimates published by the Census Bureau have indicated that consumer demand for retail goods remains resilient. However, published measures do not provide details on which consumers’ spending has remained resilient. Using a detailed micro dataset, we construct a measure of average retail spending for low-, middle- and high-income households.
FEDS Note: Rising Auto Loan Delinquencies and High Monthly Payments
Robert Adams, Vitaly Bord, and Haja Sannoh
Delinquency rates on auto loans rose substantially to above pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2023, after falling to historical lows during the COVID-19 pandemic. Because auto loans are an important sector in consumer credit, accounting for about 25 percent of nonmortgage consumer credit, a deeper analysis of the increase in delinquencies can give insights into the financial health of borrowers in consumer credit markets and overall household financial well-being.
Delinquency rates on auto loans rose substantially to above pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2023, after falling to historical lows during the COVID-19 pandemic. Because auto loans are an important sector in consumer credit, accounting for about 25 percent of nonmortgage consumer credit, a deeper analysis of the increase in delinquencies can give insights into the financial health of borrowers in consumer credit markets and overall household financial well-being.
FEDS Note: Dealer Balance Sheet Constraints Evidence from Dealer-Level Data across Repo Market Segments
Lia Chabot, Paul Cochran, Sebastian Infante, Benjamin Iorio
The continued growth of U.S. Treasury issuance has garnered interest in understanding dealers’ ability to intermediate the U.S. Treasury market. These trends have spurred various efforts to measure the degree to which dealer balance sheet constraints—broadly defined as restrictions on the overall size of an intermediary’s balance sheet—can affect the intermediation of the Treasury market.
The continued growth of U.S. Treasury issuance has garnered interest in understanding dealers’ ability to intermediate the U.S. Treasury market. These trends have spurred various efforts to measure the degree to which dealer balance sheet constraints—broadly defined as restrictions on the overall size of an intermediary’s balance sheet—can affect the intermediation of the Treasury market.
Bank of England – Bank Overground
How will increasing business use of artificial intelligence (AI) affect UK labour demand?
The purpose of Bank Overground is to share our internal analysis. Each bite-sized post summarises a piece of analysis that supported a policy or operational decision.
Why do UK companies raise market-based finance debt?
The purpose of Bank Overground is to share our internal analysis. Each bite-sized post summarises a piece of analysis that supported a policy or operational decision.
How are higher borrowing costs affecting debt-servicing pressures for small businesses?
The purpose of Bank Overground is to share our internal analysis. Each bite-sized post summarises a piece of analysis that supported a policy or operational decision.